Yesterday, the Shrub made another Iraq speech in which he reiterated the calamitous situation that will arise if we pull out of Iraq before a stable peace is established. Hello?!? A what? Let's take a look at a few points and possibly shovel some of the crap coming out of the White House (which should be renamed the Brown House for obvious reasons).
First, whether we pull out next week or five years from now, there is no chance that by our presence we will establish a stable peace in Iraq. We are the invaders and conquerors of the country; uninvited and mostly unwanted by the groups that have claimed power in the fractured government of Iraq. Shortly after the invasion and occupation, the Iraqi militias, loyal to several religious leaders, pulled together to fight their common enemy, the U.S. military. As time went on, however, the militias began fighting each other because, simply put, that’s what Muslim militias do.
For the thirteen hundred plus years since the death of Mohammed, the various Muslim sects have been fighting each other to establish which group can show a direct lineage to Mohammed. The Muslims feel that whichever sect has direct lineage is the only true sect.. I suspect it is akin to the squabbling among other religions as to who is the one true religion and thereby holds the inside track to heavenly salvation.
Fortunately, the vast majority of countries are governed by a political system that is not a theocracy. The exceptions of course are the Vatican and the Islamic countries. The Vatican is not only a theocracy but it is also a dictatorship. This negates the need for fighting to gain the upper hand for a particular group of Catholics. They are all under the control of the Pope and authority is not questioned.
In a simple theocracy, nationalism is virtually meaningless. The people of Iraq don’t identify as Iraqis first then as members of the various Islamic sects that make up their religious society. It is the other way around. They are Sunnis or Shiites or whatever first and Iraqi citizens only because they are identifying where they live. They will, and do, fight constantly over which sect is the true sect.
If we were to pull out of Iraq in January, 2008 or January, 2012 there would be just as much bloodshed from in-fighting between the various Muslim sects. It isn’t going to matter. In addition, Al Qaeda won’t come storming in to take control of the country, because the existing Muslim groups do not want another Muslim group to take control in their territory. Besides, there is no love lost between the Iraqis and Al Qaeda. The bullshit about fighting Al Qaeda in Iraq instead of over here is completely without merit. They were not there when Saddam was in control and they are there sparsely now and only because of the U.S. military presence. Their numbers and influence are very low.
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